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Kitchen Sink => No Moto Content => Topic started by: Monsterlover on December 14, 2011, 11:41:37 AM

Title: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: Monsterlover on December 14, 2011, 11:41:37 AM
A discussion someone posted on LinkedIn.  I thought it was an interesting question.



"In a short six years beginning in 1939. the Manhattan Project completed the design for and the total manufacturing infrastructure to produce the first atomic bomb. By 1945, the project cost nearly $2 billion (roughly equivalent to $24.4 billion as of 2011) and had nearly 40 labratories and factories which employed nearly 200,000 people including some of the greatest scientists that have ever lived. Over 90% of the cost was for building factories and producing the fissionable materials, with less than 10% for development and production of the weapons. Research took place at more than 30 sites."
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: RAT900 on December 14, 2011, 11:50:32 AM
yes,

but we would have to deploy neutron bombs in Congress during full session

and wipe out every government regulatory and compliance agency
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: zooom on December 14, 2011, 12:05:37 PM
Quote from: RAT900 on December 14, 2011, 11:50:32 AM
yes,

but we would have to deploy neutron bombs in Congress during full session

and wipe out every government regulatory and compliance agency

[THUMBSUP]
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: duccarlos on December 14, 2011, 12:06:31 PM
As it stands today? Nope.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: ducatiz on December 14, 2011, 12:20:18 PM
I don't think we could mobilize that much manpower without huge leaks and such.  Back then people were willing to work for peanuts just to have a job -- having come out of the great depression, and also the general feeling of patriotism to be working on such a project.

Nowadays, no.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: duccarlos on December 14, 2011, 12:25:21 PM
Not to mention the secrecy involved.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: ManaloEA on December 14, 2011, 12:37:35 PM
Quote from: duccarlos on December 14, 2011, 12:25:21 PM
Not to mention the secrecy involved.
You're not supposed to mention the secrecy.  [cheeky]
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: mitt on December 14, 2011, 12:41:44 PM
The same analogy could be landing on the moon.  That whole plan and all the different programs and missions took a fraction of the time a single program takes today.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: Triple J on December 14, 2011, 01:14:48 PM
I have no doubt we could do it, given the same urgency that was present at that time.

People like to look to the past and say how much better it was, just like they like to say how terrible today's youth are (both have been happening for centuries); but it's BS for the most part. Continued scientific advancements and innovations prove it wrong.

The real question is could we keep it secret given the internet and such. Maybe not on that issue, given the number of people who would be involved, and the number of people who would be trying to figure out what was going on.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: spolic on December 14, 2011, 02:58:24 PM
A little off topic but I went and toured the Manhattan Project B Reactor this summer. Very cool, and a little spooky.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: fastwin on December 14, 2011, 03:09:39 PM
Quote from: mitt on December 14, 2011, 12:41:44 PM
The same analogy could be landing on the moon.  That whole plan and all the different programs and missions took a fraction of the time a single program takes today.


I remember watching that lunar landing in the summer of 1969 on TV. Blew me away then and it still does.

I say no way we could pull off the bomb in this day and time and keep everyone else from knowing about it. They are right, with the internet there are no secrets. Loose lips sick ships. ;D [popcorn]
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: lethe on December 14, 2011, 03:11:37 PM
however....how are we to know that the biggest secret project(s) are being done as we speak without our knowledge?
Maybe it is still possible
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: ducpainter on December 14, 2011, 03:14:56 PM
Quote from: lethe on December 14, 2011, 03:11:37 PM
however....how are we to know that the biggest secret project(s) are being done as we speak without our knowledge?
Maybe it is still possible
(http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5299/5404789780_7e4448de75.jpg) (http://www.flickr.com/photos/26408631@N02/5404789780/)
tinfoil (http://www.flickr.com/photos/26408631@N02/5404789780/#) by nh_painter (http://www.flickr.com/people/26408631@N02/), on Flickr
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: lethe on December 14, 2011, 03:25:17 PM
Quote from: ducpainter on December 14, 2011, 03:14:56 PM
(http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5299/5404789780_7e4448de75.jpg) (http://www.flickr.com/photos/26408631@N02/5404789780/)
tinfoil (http://www.flickr.com/photos/26408631@N02/5404789780/#) by nh_painter (http://www.flickr.com/people/26408631@N02/), on Flickr
what if tin foil manufacturer's have been putting mind reading chips in the tin foil?  :o
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: ducpainter on December 14, 2011, 03:29:40 PM
Quote from: lethe on December 14, 2011, 03:25:17 PM
what if tin foil manufacturer's have been putting mind reading chips in the tin foil?  :o
It would not be cost effective.

How much tinfoil ends up in hats?  :P
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: Ddan on December 14, 2011, 03:35:19 PM
Quote from: ducpainter on December 14, 2011, 03:29:40 PM


How much tinfoil ends up in hats?  :P
Not enough.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: lethe on December 14, 2011, 03:37:49 PM
Quote from: ducpainter on December 14, 2011, 03:29:40 PM
It would not be cost effective.

How much tinfoil ends up in hats?  :P
2.7%
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: triangleforge on December 14, 2011, 03:40:20 PM
In my current, part-time gig promoting shows for a local performance hall, I learned an interesting fact while working on an Oak Ridge Boys show last year. The original iteration of the Oak Ridge Boys got their start as full-time, professional musicians in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Not all that remarkable, until you learn that at that time - during the Manhattan Project - Oak Ridge didn't officially exist. It wasn't just a secret facility made up entirely of scientists and project workers, but a community of families with churches of several denominations, segregated neighborhoods, and (the part that blew my mind) dozens of full-time, professional musicians. 75,000 people by 1945 in a town that had been home to 2,000 or fewer before 1942, was surrounded by fences and guard towers, and didn't appear on any map, or so Wikipedia tells me.

While I understood a little bit how the Soviets could pull off secret city stuff in an authoritarian system with some of their aerospace & military programs, to me the story of the Oak Ridge Boys and the scope of the Manhattan Project is a testament to just how desperate those times were. WWII touched every family in this country directly, personally and often tragically in a way that, blessedly, is unrivaled in our national experience since that time.

To me, an equally valid question would be not just "could we replicate the Manhattan Project," but "what hellishly dire circumstances could push us to do so?"
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: lethe on December 14, 2011, 03:42:56 PM
Quote from: triangleforge on December 14, 2011, 03:40:20 PM
To me, an equally valid question would be not just "could we replicate the Manhattan Project," but "what hellishly dire circumstances could push us to do so?"
I'd like to hope not to see circumstances that dire but history, if nothing else, proves we will have "something" come around again  :P

hope we'd be up to the task
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: Langanobob on December 14, 2011, 04:11:03 PM
Quote from: triangleforge on December 14, 2011, 03:40:20 PM
<snip>  To me, an equally valid question would be not just "could we replicate the Manhattan Project," but "what hellishly dire circumstances could push us to do so?"

Those were my thoughts also upon seeing this thread.  And with today's technology, sixty-something years of exponential science and engineering progress since the original Manhattan Project, I am struggling trying to comprehend what the results would be of such an effort now.   May it never happen.

Old thought but why can't we or why don't we put such an effort into curing cancer, mental illnesses, or renewable energy sources. Seems that positive goals do not strike the same chord as goals forged in desperation.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: zarn02 on December 14, 2011, 04:14:42 PM
Why was there a Manhattan project? We needed to be able to kill a whole bunch of folks at once before someone else beat us to it.

Why did we go to the moon? If we didn't do it, the Soviets might. And that was unacceptable.

We could probably land on Mars in the next decade if we found aliens there that needed shot, or the Chinese threatened to get there first.

(And if our monumentally poor economic policies didn't destroy the dollar between now and then.)
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: fastwin on December 14, 2011, 04:15:16 PM
"what hellishly dire circumstances could push us to do so?"

Easy. Two words. Zombie apocalypse. ;) Real life "Walking Dead". [thumbsup] [laugh]
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: Goat_Herder on December 14, 2011, 04:18:33 PM
Can we do it today?  Yes.  Is it going right now?  I have no doubt the government is working on something for "just in case we need it".
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: fastwin on December 14, 2011, 04:20:10 PM
Twenty bucks say they are working on a Death Star. ;D
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: zarn02 on December 14, 2011, 04:24:47 PM
Quote from: Goat_Herder on December 14, 2011, 04:18:33 PM
Can we do it today?  Yes.  Is it going right now?  I have no doubt the government is working on something for "just in case we need it".

The movies got it all wrong. Mad scientists don't hold nations ransom. No, they work for the governments of those nations.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: Ddan on December 14, 2011, 04:28:49 PM
Quote from: fastwin on December 14, 2011, 04:20:10 PM
Twenty bucks say they are working on a Death Star. ;D
Cloning
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: Rameses on December 14, 2011, 05:15:36 PM
Quote from: triangleforge on December 14, 2011, 03:40:20 PM
In my current, part-time gig promoting shows for a local performance hall, I learned an interesting fact while working on an Oak Ridge Boys show last year. The original iteration of the Oak Ridge Boys got their start as full-time, professional musicians in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Not all that remarkable, until you learn that at that time - during the Manhattan Project - Oak Ridge didn't officially exist. It wasn't just a secret facility made up entirely of scientists and project workers, but a community of families with churches of several denominations, segregated neighborhoods, and (the part that blew my mind) dozens of full-time, professional musicians. 75,000 people by 1945 in a town that had been home to 2,000 or fewer before 1942, was surrounded by fences and guard towers, and didn't appear on any map, or so Wikipedia tells me.

While I understood a little bit how the Soviets could pull off secret city stuff in an authoritarian system with some of their aerospace & military programs, to me the story of the Oak Ridge Boys and the scope of the Manhattan Project is a testament to just how desperate those times were. WWII touched every family in this country directly, personally and often tragically in a way that, blessedly, is unrivaled in our national experience since that time.

To me, an equally valid question would be not just "could we replicate the Manhattan Project," but "what hellishly dire circumstances could push us to do so?"




Holy shit, that's incredible!!

The Oak Ridge Boys are still touring?!


:P


Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: Drunken Monkey on December 14, 2011, 05:30:11 PM
Could we do this today?

Totally.

We'd just need to be on a war footing again.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: herm on December 14, 2011, 05:56:21 PM
Quote from: Drunken Monkey on December 14, 2011, 05:30:11 PM
Could we do this today?

Totally.

We'd just need to be on a war footing again.

again for how much longer than the last ten years?

seriously, i have no doubt that some day we will find that our scientists worked for X number of years in total secrecy before finally revealing something we would never even think of (Gene Roddenberry and George Lucas excluded.)
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: Grappa on December 15, 2011, 12:52:30 AM
Manhattan Project today?

I think Iran is busy working on one as we sleep.    [coffee]
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: zarn02 on December 15, 2011, 06:45:08 AM
Iran is just another bogeyman that's been trotted out for us to fear.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: ducatiz on December 15, 2011, 06:48:16 AM
Quote from: zarn02 on December 15, 2011, 06:45:08 AM
Iran is just another bogeyman that's been trotted out for us to fear.

If there wasn't oodles of video of Achmadinejad saying stuff along with the Imran Khan folks helping in Iran, I'd agree with you.

Quote from: Grappa on December 15, 2011, 12:52:30 AM
Manhattan Project today?

I think Iran is busy working on one as we sleep.    [coffee]

(http://www2.jogjabelajar.org/modul/how/b/bunker_buster/bunker-buster5.jpg)
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: duccarlos on December 15, 2011, 09:19:20 AM
IBTL

Quote from: zarn02 on December 14, 2011, 04:14:42 PM
Why was there a Manhattan project? We needed to be able to kill a whole bunch of folks at once before someone else beat us to it.

Why did we go to the moon? If we didn't do it, the Soviets might. And that was unacceptable.

We could probably land on Mars in the next decade if we found aliens there that needed shot, or the Chinese threatened to get there first.

(And if our monumentally poor economic policies didn't destroy the dollar between now and then.)

+1 It's about competition. If China refocused their efforts to going to Mars, we would have a space race all over again  [thumbsup]
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: Drjones on December 15, 2011, 09:52:00 AM
Nope.

A) We're broke.
B) Not enough domestic engineers and scientists.
C) Would have to use foreign national engineers and scientists who leak IP back to their home countries like a sieve.
D) No great world threat exists to unify people toward a collective goal.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: Triple J on December 15, 2011, 10:23:00 AM
Quote from: Drjones on December 15, 2011, 09:52:00 AM
Nope.

A) We're broke.
B) Not enough domestic engineers and scientists.
C) Would have to use foreign national engineers and scientists who leak IP back to their home countries like a sieve.
D) No great world threat exists to unify people toward a collective goal.

Agreed on A & D

On B & C...there are plenty of great domestic engineers and scientists. For something theoretical and cutting edge like the Manhattan Project, many would come from universities, just as they did back then. Don't confuse the shortage of high numbers of everyday engineers/scientists with the lower number of high-caliber ones that would be required for a Manhattan Project style undertaking.

Related to the same issue, you do remember that quite a few of the Manhattan Project scientists weren't domestic right? This relates to D, and why they didn't leak information. Regardless, the US had a massive security/anti-espionage task force working on the Manhattan Project.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: ducatiz on December 15, 2011, 11:08:49 AM
and didn't Oppenheimer give the h bomb to the Soviets?
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: Triple J on December 15, 2011, 11:21:43 AM
Quote from: ducatiz on December 15, 2011, 11:08:49 AM
and didn't Oppenheimer give the h bomb to the Soviets?

No. He was a victim of McCarthyism though due to his liberal leanings and early involvement with a domestic communist party.
Title: Re: Could we pull off another Manhattan Project today?
Post by: mitt on December 15, 2011, 02:07:54 PM
Quote from: Drjones on December 15, 2011, 09:52:00 AM
Nope.

A) We're broke.
B) Not enough domestic engineers and scientists.
C) Would have to use foreign national engineers and scientists who leak IP back to their home countries like a sieve.
D) No great world threat exists to unify people toward a collective goal.

There is no D) yet, but it is coming, one way or the other.  Could be famine, plague, global climate change, running out of oil, etc. 

mitt