Do any of you know or are friends with any bank officers willing to do a real estate refinance in this market?  I'm getting turned down all over town.  We have good loan to value, 86 units / two buildings in East Dallas, around 2.85m appraised value, looking for an 800k refi + 100k for some additional renovation and working capital.  I have loan packages prepared.  I'll buy a steak dinner and one motorcycle item of up to $300 if I close a deal with your contact.  PM me if you have any leads.  Serious replies please.   

Jacob

You have a PM.

Jweave, PM replied to and thank you.

Fastwin, I appreciate the kind words.  I'm trying to put the feelers out there and I imagine we'll figure out a solution eventually.  I have approximately 7 months left.... not the best scenario, but this market is killing me.

Quote from: fastwin on October 19, 2009, 04:22:48 PM...now that the residential foreclosures are settling out...

Not exactly.
Banks are not going any farther than issuing a NOD (Notice Of Default).
They are not pursuing forclosures ...this keeps the true market value of the properties off the books.
If the true values of the non-performing loans were on the books -everyone would know they ALL are insolvent.

This is all part of the "extend-and-pretend" mantra they are following.

The biggest wave of residential property forclosures have yet to hit.
Commercial property is just warming up.
And there are other things cooking not mentioned here.

We are fooked.

Prep accordingly.

printing this much money will mean the only way to get it out of circulation is to raise rates thus shortening/attempting to pull money out of supply.  get that loan now because at the pace we are going things are going to get uglier if something doesn't get done.  maybe break it up into two institutions to compete for the money.  my first stop would be a credit union, one of the few still making money and lending.  hurry, the worst is not over and good luck.

send me a pm with your info and I'll call someone at Wells that might be able to help.

Quote from: muskrat on October 29, 2009, 06:39:01 AM
printing this much money will mean the only way to get it out of circulation is to raise rates...

Gee, that won't do much for the (alarmingly!) high delinquency rates for Option ARMs...

50% of them are delinquent!

QuoteOctober 29th, 2009 8:18 am | by John Jansen |
This was in a morning note from AAron Kohli of RBS and I thought it worthy of reproduction here. I can not reproduce the chart he referenced. I also visited the Saint Louis Fed website and could notlocate more detail.

“Turning now to an announcement that caught our eye yesterday, the St. Louis Fed stated that they were concerned about Option Arm and Alt-A loan delinquency rates. I am too. Attached is a chart of delinquencies in the Option ARM universe. The key takeaway from this chart is that low rates have allowed some borrowers in this type of loan to make the minimum payment and still cover at least a part of their principal or delay the time till they reach their negative amortization cap. Despite that fact, delinquencies have moved steadily higher with the 30 day + delinquency now reaching close to 50% of all outstanding Option Arms. If our economists are right about the size and timing of the Fed Funds rate hike (approx. 1% per quarter starting in Q2 next year), the impact on borrowers of these types of loans could be very significant. Those who are slightly delinquent or barely holding on could see their payments move substantially higher with the impact possible late next year.”

That's a quote from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louie! -Hardly "settling out".  Hell, The tailspin is just getting going!!!   

Link HERE: http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=9779

Delinquencies Rise Further In Fannie's Portfolio In August
Last update: 10/30/2009 4:19:36 PM
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Fannie Mae (FNM) said delinquencies in its mortgage portfolio continued to rise, showing a potential plateau in the woes has yet to arrive.

It and smaller sibling Freddie Mac (FRE) were put into conservatorship a year ago by the federal government amid fears of mounting losses at the companies.

Fannie said Friday that August serious delinquencies, or those at least 90 days behind, rose to 4.45% on single-family homes from 4.17% in July and 1.57% a year earlier. Fannie's delinquencies have been worse than Freddie's.

The report also showed that Fannie's mortgage portfolio grew 1.7% in September to $792.68 billion, or a 22% annual rate. Its book of business, which includes mortgage-backed securities and other guarantees, rose $13.6 billion to $3.24 trillion. Its annualized growth rate was 5.2% for the month.

In addition, Fannie's net commitments to purchase mortgages more than doubled in September to $69.67 billion after August's 69% month-on-month tumble. Fannie and Freddie are key mortgage financiers.

Fannie shares closed Friday at $1.08. The stock is up 42% this year.

-By Kevin Kingsbury, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2354; kevin.kingsbury@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 30, 2009 16:19 ET (20:19 GMT)

9 November 2009
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (FNM.N), shrunk its gross mortgage portfolio by an annual rate of about 28 percent in October and delinquencies on loans it guarantees rose sharply in September, the largest U.S. home funding company said on Tuesday.

The key in the story is that the single-family "serious" delinquency rate (that is, 90+ days behind - in the "forget it, they're hosed" bucket) is now 4.72% of the entire portfolio, where a year ago it was 1.72%.

That's 275% of the previous rate.

Where's the MBS portfolio going?  Fannie isn't running it down, you know.

I have often commented that we're nowhere near done with the mortgage explosions, and that where subprime was bad, those loans made in 2005-2007 to people who lied about their incomes - which is 90% of those who took out "ALT-A" loans - were going to be a catastrophe.

Check out this little clip from 60 Mnutes last week.

It'll give you a warm IZ_ feeling.   

The Housing Collapse of 2010 Will Be Worse Than 2008

Wow, Rich, that is deep. Unfortunately I missed that one. (read Cowflops game) I usually watch the show.

This is most alarming about the market. Having bought my home over 11 years ago I'm not in bad shape but to the those who are in the market now may be in for some tough times. Home prices should have never gotten this high. In 1986 after the S & L failures the U. S. should have learned it's lessons then but didn't and just forged ahead with out of control high interest loans. People thought they could afford it. Home prices went up enourmously over a short period of time. After a point was reached where no one was buying the interest rates went down because pricing was going up. That made it appealing to most new buyers. That is when the real mishap started. The early '90's were a heyday for those wanting a bigger new house and the Mercedes in the drive on a clerks salary. The ball had to stop somewhere. Now we see it. Not that I'm an analyst but experience has shown me a few things. I believe we'll see something similar to the days when interest rates will soar above mid-teens again. Those interest rates will be a controlling factor for years to come. Lenders will not have much choice. The bailout regs will now get much stiffer for money to go out. They need money to come in so the foreclosures and firesales will increase due to negative cashflow in the mortgage banking arena. If one has some money to put back and hold onto they may make out like pirates on a raid in a few years. Thanks Rich, good stuff.

PRIME loans are the GOOD (best rated ones)...
Do you wonder how the "bad" are doing?  

QuoteThe performance of US prime jumbo loan performance within residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) slipped again in January as serious delinquencies (60+ days past due) rose for the 32nd consecutive month and edged closer to 10%, according to the latest market commentary from Fitch Ratings.

Prime jumbo loan delinquencies began to rise in Q207 but accelerated since then. In 2009, the rate of delinquency nearly tripled during the year. The serious delinquencies rose to 9.6% in January from 9.2% in December.

“The new year has brought no relief from declining jumbo loan performance,” said Fitch managing director Vincent Barberio. “The trend line for delinquencies indicates the 10% level could be reached as early as next month.”

A jumbo mortgage has an initial principal amount above the $417,000 conventional loan limit set by Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.98 +1.03%) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.16 0.00%). In higher-priced markets the limit is $729,750, and, in October, appropriations committees in both the House and Senate proposed an extension of the limit through 2010.

Fitch indicated delinquency rates on pre-2005 prime jumbo RMBS vintages are still lower than recent vintages. But seasoned RMBS pools have deteriorated over the last year, rising to 4.3% in serious delinquency from 1.8%. Of all prime jumbo senior RMBS classes issued before 2005, about 40% are under a negative rating outlook due to weak collateral performance, despite only 5% having experienced downgrades so far.

The roll rate of prime jumbo borrowers that fell into delinquency declined slightly to 1.2% for January from the seasonal high of 1.3% in December, Fitch said.

California spearheaded the rising delinquencies, jumping to 11.3% in January from 10.8% a month earlier. The state represents 44% of the $381bn prime jumbo RMBS market.

Four other states rounded out the top five in terms of highest volume of prime jumbo loans outstanding. New York, which represents 7% of the market, saw delinquencies rise to 6.1% from 5.8% the month before. Florida, representing 6% of the market, rose to 16.6% delinquent, from 16%. Virginia, representing 5% of the market, jumped to 5.6% delinquent from 5.4%. And New Jersey, representing 4% of the market, grew to 7.4% delinquent, from 7.1%.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/02/08/fitch-says-prime-jumbo-rmbs-near-10-delinquent/

<edited> ...added minor emphasis.   

commercial real estate is about to go bust.

Quote from: muskrat on February 08, 2010, 06:43:21 PM
commercial real estate is about to go bust.

Tick-Tick-Tick-Tick... 

Quote from: RichD on February 09, 2010, 03:37:17 AM
Tick-Tick-Tick-Tick... 

You sound like 60 Minutes.